Ethanol Fuel VS Gasoline

I found another great video discussing how ethanol is a clean renewable fuel. It discusses how ethanol is gaining momentum as gas prices rise. According to Karmavision.tv there are over 4 million flex fuel vehicles on the road today that can run on different blends of ethanol. They go on to mention that ease of use at the pump and performance on the street give ethanol a great shot at becoming the next mainstream fuel that runs America. Rick Little, an E85 pump installer, mentions how ethanol displaces crude oil up to 85% and is high in oxygen so it burns much cleaner.

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Making Ethanol Fuel Mainstream

This is a great video on ethanol presented by the auto channel. Ethanol a renewable biofuel can be produced from corn, sugarcane, switchgrass, waste and even wood. This ethanol video discusses how Brazil became much more independent during the gas wars thirty years ago. During this period Brazil became the leader in ethanol production and powers the majority of cars today on Ethanol. There is no doubt that using food for ethanol production is a bad idea. However, there are many organizations working on ethanol production and I feel it is a matter of time before we find a way to produce ethanol fuel cost effectively without endangering our food supply.

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Ethanol World Production Statistics

Ethanol production in the world is on the rise. According to the Renewable Fuels Organization, the 2007 world ethanol production is as follows;

2007 WORLD FUEL ETHANOL PRODUCTION

Country
Millions of Gallons
USA
6498.6
Brazil
5019.2
European Union
570.3
China
486.0
Canada
211.3
Thailand
79.2
Columbia
74.9
India
52.8
Central America
39.6
Australia
26.4
Turkey
15.8
Pakistan
9.2
Peru
7.9
Argentina
5.2
Paraguay
4.7
Total
13,101.7

I am glad to see that the US is leading the production of ethanol considering that we consume the most fuel. It is also not surprising to see ethanol production in Brazil coming in at number two. Ethanol has been mainstream in Brazil for over 30 years.

The Renewable Fuels Organization also reports US Ethanol Demand to be the following;

U.S. FUEL ETHANOL DEMAND
(MILLIONS OF GALLONS)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
U.S. Ethanol Production 2,130 2,800 3,400 3,904 4,855 6,500
Ethanol Imports 46 61 161 135.0 653.3 450
Ethanol Exports n/a n/a n/a 7.99 n/a n/a
Ethanol Stocks Change -91 39 -31 -17.98 108.1
Demand 2,085 2,900 3,530 4,048.9 5,377.4

The majority of ethanol production in the U.S. is in the midwest. However, as technology improves it will be interesting to see the increase of ethanol production in Florida and Louisiana. I think it is really cool how they can turn waste areas such as the swamp lands and bayous into ethanol. Stay tuned to more research on making ethanol out of switchgrass and sugarcane.

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Ethanol Gas Mileage – Increase or Decrease?

So it has been almost a month since my last post and fortunately I had a reader bring up some negative gas mileage effects of ethanol.

Does Ethanol Lower Gas Mileage?

There are a lot of studies and plenty of people that believe that ethanol lowers gas mileage. Consumer reports did a great study over this and after interviewing 50 experts and running one test on a Chevy Tahoe FFV they found that the gas mileage was lowered by 27% by running on E85. At the time of this study a gallon of e85 was $2.91 per gallon. A 27% fuel economy penalty means that the consumer would have paid $3.99 per gallon of regular gasoline. So in this particular example it appears that e85 does have a negative effect on fuel economy and e85 prices do not help the consumer when gas prices are $4.00 per gallon. However, as gas prices increase and technology is improved will the same consumer see a net gain by using e85?

The American Coalition for Ethanol did a pretty intensive study on smaller vehicles and found that higher blends of ethanol fuel actually increase gas mileage. The Coalition tested compact 2005 Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota models. The conclusion showed that different blends of ethanol gas generate significantly different results.

  • E10 lowered mileage by 1.50%
  • E20 lowered mileage by 2.25%
  • E30 lowered mileage by 5.10%
  • E10AK increased mileage 1.70%

The coalition finally concluded that anecdotal evidence shows that E85 does not lower gas mileage by the estimate of 30%.

After reading both of these studies, I am still positive that ethanol will be key in reducing our need for foreign oil and gas. Ethanol in its current state today will not survive in my opinion. However, I firmly believe that there will be improvements in technology and the production of cellulosic ethanol to help ethanol become a mainstream fuel. The Citizen’s Coalition for Distilling Ethanol in Barrie have an interesting spin on ethanol blends and fuel efficiency.

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Making Money on Ethanol

There are plenty of people benefiting from the growth of Ethanol in the United States including contractors and farmers. Since January 2008 there have been 34 plants under construction, which will add 3.9 billion gallons to the market annually. Currently there are 9.8 billion gallons of ethanol being produced in the US lowering the average consumers’ gas bill by $526 per year and raising their food bill by $15 per year. Sounds like a good deal to me.

The Farmer is back in the game!

After years of seeing the farmer struggle there seems to be positive returns on the horizon. In Jennings LA this week a Cellulosic Ethanol plant opened, which will support the small population of 11,000. Jennings is just south Lafayette and has traditionally been supported by rice, crawfish and sugarcane. There are currently 90 farmers growing sugarcane to support the plant. The price per barrel of oil was $60 when the plant broke ground, which was in mid 2006. Today the price is well over $130 per barrel. I am happy to see that there could be a redistribution of wealth from the Middle East and Manhattan to the farm lands in the South and Mid West. Wouldn’t it be nice to support the American farmer instead of Corporate America and the Middle East?

Florida is another great state with plenty of land to grow sugarcane to produce ethanol.

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Ethanol Lowers Gas Prices

It is estimated that ethanol saves the average family $526 and raises their food prices by $15 annually.

A recent study made by Iowa University states that production of ethanol has lowered the gas prices considerably and if people use ethanol additives in their vehicles, it further lowers gasoline prices. The study concluded that gasoline prices have been reduced by 40 cents per gallon. The institution carried out research using pooled regional data to estimate and quantify the effect of monthly ethanol yields on regular gasoline prices.

In the U.S, manufacturers produce ethanol from crops such as corn, wheat, barley, potatoes and sugarcane. Production cost of ethanol from such crops is low as compared to that required to extract fuel from crude oil. Hurricane Rita, which caused havoc in Louisiana and Texas seriously, impaired fuel industries in the region in the year 2006 and led to an increase in gasoline prices. Other factors include more demand-less supply, increased labor charges and expensive technology.

Since prices in recent times, are touching the sky, consumers will have to countenance more pain at gas stations in the upcoming months.

Impact Of Ethanol Production In Different Regions:

Researchers of the Iowa University used the pooled OLS method, a permanent data model, and panel FGLS method to measure the effect of ethanol production in different regions. These models studied the refinery capacity, gasoline imports, hurricanes, stocks, market concentration in processing industry, utilization rate and seasonality.

In the Midwest, this impact was a reduction in gas prices by 30 cents whereas the Rocky Mountains showed as little a difference as 17 cents per gallon. The usage of gasoline is less in the mountainous regions.

Regions in the Gulf coast experienced 24.6 cents of decline in retail gas prices. In the west as well as the east coast, average drop in gasoline prices due to production of ethanol is 34 cents. Thus, studies clearly depict that ethanol production has drastically reduced income margin of fuel industries.

Results show that in the period 1995 -2007, ethanol production had noteworthy negative impact $0.29 – $0.40 on every gallon. Studies suggest that this drop in gas prices was at the expense of fuel refiner’s profit. These outcomes are statistically prominent across the series of model specifications in all regions.

The analysis indicates that gasoline prices were impacted considerably in different regions of the U.S and other nations too.

Overview:
Drop in the retail gas prices due to the production and usage of ethanol as a fuel is surprisingly large. Although, it is not possible to extrapolate the effect of ethanol production on fuel prices all over the world, people still witness major changes in the gas industry in modern times. Thus, there lies a probability for owners of oil refineries also to turn their interest towards ethanol production.

Thus, had there been no ethanol production, it was very likely that crude oil and refining companies may have become larger than they are now. Therefore, the impact of production of ethanol is highly significant in lowering the gas prices.

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Ethanol and my Education at Ethanol.net

My name is Golfusa and I recently started this blog at ethanol.net as a tool for learning more about the industry. If you are an expert I should tell you that I welcome your comments but should warn you that I am an amateur on on the topic and this is my first blog entry, ever!

I am writing about Ethanol Fuel for the following reasons;

1. Does ethanol lower gas prices?

2. Ethanol Fuel Education
Is Ethanol ever going to be mainstream or is it simply too expensive to produce?

3. Media Hype around Ethanol Gas
Why are there so many contradicting views about ethanol and it’s effect on food and gas prices?

4. Ethanol Commerce
If ethanol or e85 cars and trucks become mainstream what kind of business models will sprout up to support them? There are plenty of obvious B2B plays in this sector. However, other then e85 car manufacturers, what sort of B2C plays are going to grow? I am sure there are plenty of stocks and companies one could invest. Perhaps consumers will make their own fuel with stills.

5. Ethanol Production in Florida
The Governor of Florida has been interviewed several times and is a proponent of the growth of Ethanol production in Florida. The southern climate is similar to Brazil which makes it a great place to grow sugar cane. Production in Brazil began in 1930 and is the second largest ethanol producing country in the world.

6. Switchgrass, Corn or Sugarcane Ethanol?
What is the most efficient commodity for producing ethanol? I guess if you are from the midwest you would welcome corn based fuel and if you are from Florida you may be behind sugarcane fuel. This is the first time I have came across ethanol produced from switchgrass.

My short BIO includes growing up in Oklahoma and witnessing as a child the effects of an oil boom and bust. I graduated from the University of Oklahoma in 1999 and started an Internet Marketing firm in Florida. Over the years we gradually grew into a recognizable brand with national clients. In May 2007 we sold our firm to an agency in NY for whom I am still working. It is quite comical that this is my first blog post after almost a decade of running an online agency. I must admit that I am enjoying getting back in the trenches as I cannot rely on any of the talent I recruited over the years to help me build out this site for obvious reasons.

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